The Jacksonville Jaguars are fresh off their biggest win of the season -- a shocking home upset of the Buffalo Bills that was the result of a 9-6 beatdown of Buffalo's offense by the Jaguars' swarming defense.But it was more than the Dexter Fowler Jersey Jaguars' four sacks and three turnovers that made the difference in the physical slugfest. It took a team effort for the 2-6 Jaguars to shock the Bills, from the coaching staff down to every player on the roster.Among the factors that played a part in the Jaguars winning in front of their home crowd for the first time in 420 days? Head coach Urban Meyer, who came through in a big moment with a critical fourth-down decision. , the data science and analytics sports firm that owns Football Outsiders, reviews every coaching decision during the season and ranks the best and worst decisions each week based on impact to Game-Winning Chance (GWC). And this week, Meyer finds himself on the company's list of best decisions."Game-Winning Chance (GWC) is a teams win probability, generated from the EdjFootball simulation model, whichsimulates each game 400,000 times. The EdjSports proprietary model is based on historical NFL play-by-play dataand is fully customized for each teams strengths and weakne ses," the company . "Every team has a GWC at kickoff, based on thecustomized matchup, which fluctuates throughout the game, ending at either 0% or 100%."Following Josh Allen's interception of Josh Jack Flaherty Jersey Allen in the final minutes of the third-quarter, the Jaguars drove the ball all the way into the red-zone before Meyer and his struggling offense was faced with their biggest decision and Jose Martinez Jersey play of the game.Scroll to ContinueOn 4th-and-1 on Buffalo's 11-yard line with 13:29 left, Meyer trusted his offense to get a first down as opposed to trotting out the field goal unit -- a sign of a sound decision-making proce s from the first-year head coach.With the Jaguars facing a chance to either kick a short field goal to go up 9-6 with over 12 minutes left or go for one yard with an offense that failed to pick up first downs consistently throughout the contest, Meyer kept his offense on the field. Trevor Lawrence would then execute his first quarterback sneak of the season, a conversion that put the Jaguars mere yards from the goal line and with a chance to drive a nail through the coffin of the Bills.According to EdjSports, the Jaguars would have had a Game-Winning Chance of 44.1% if they trotted out kicker Matthew Wright on fourth down. Instead, the decision to go for it increased the Jaguars' GWC to 52%, the third-best GWC change of the week. This doesn't factor in whether the team converts, either, taking only into account the decision to go for it.The Jaguars, of course, still had to kick a field goal several plays later after the offense struggled to put the ball into Stan Musial Jersey the end zone. But while the fourth-down conversion didn't pay off in six points, it did show some genuine growth from Meyer in terms of decision-making. That was one of Meyer's best in-game decisions of the entire season, a season in which he has been aggre sive on fourth-down.Jacksonville's offense didn't punch it in, but the Jaguars can at least take solace in knowing they are on the right track in terms of their decision-making. This is a contrast from earlier in the season as well when the Jaguars' decisions to go for it on fourth-down frequently increased their GWC, but rarely was actually converted.Had the Jaguars scored a touchdown on this drive instead of Wright's game-winning Tyler Webb Jersey 21-yard field goal, Meyer's decision likely garners more praise. But for as outmatched as Meyer appeared in Week 8, he was on the money with his decision-making in Week 9.